How many lands does your Commander deck need?
Updated
37 lands is a starting point, not a universal answer. Your early curve, card draw, landfall payoffs, mulligan decisions, and required land drops determine whether the deck needs more or fewer.
Compare land counts
| Lands in 99 | 3 by turn 3 | 4 by turn 4 | 5 by turn 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 78.0% | 62.1% | 45.6% |
| 37 | 80.0% | 64.9% | 48.8% |
| 38 | 81.9% | 67.6% | 51.9% |
| 39 | 83.6% | 70.2% | 55.0% |
| 40 | 85.3% | 72.6% | 58.0% |
Exact draws without replacement: a 99-card library, seven-card opener, and one draw each turn, including turn one. No mulligans, extra draw, ramp, or tapped-land timing. Seeing enough lands does not guarantee casting a spell.
Compare your own hand size and draws →Check your land-drop odds
64.9% to see at least 4 lands in 11 cards. One more land: 67.6%.
Calculation assumptions
99-card library, seven-card opener, one draw each turn. No mulligans, extra draw, ramp, or tapped-land timing. Seeing lands does not guarantee casting your spells.
Bring this calculation to your deck: build a mana base or review the model and data sources.
Start with the turns that matter
Count the lands in the 99-card library. Decide whether your plan needs a third, fourth, or fifth land on time. The calculator below shows the probability of seeing that many lands, using a seven-card opener and one draw each turn.
The estimate excludes mulligans, extra draw, ramp, and whether a land enters tapped. It measures cards seen, not spells successfully cast.
Compare one change at a time
Compare 36, 37, and 38 lands while keeping the other inputs fixed. If you lower the count, identify which early cards keep hands playable and whether they work without the missing land.
A ramp spell is not an opening-hand land. Expensive ramp cannot repair a missed second land drop. Cheap draw still needs its own colored mana.
Check the plan, not just the average
High-cost commanders, expensive spells, and landfall payoffs can justify higher counts. A low curve with abundant cheap draw may work with fewer. Neither 30 nor 40 is automatically right or wrong; both require a specific plan and testing.
- ◆Record the turn of each missed land drop
- ◆Record lands that enter tapped and delay a spell
- ◆Distinguish too few lands from missing a particular color
- ◆Check hands after the mulligans you actually use
Count modal lands deliberately
Basic lands and fetch lands occupy land slots. Mana rocks do not. For a spell/land modal double-faced card, decide how often you expect to use the land face; test both including and excluding it rather than assigning every modal card an arbitrary fraction.
Changing the land count changes the space available for spells. Keep the complete deck at 100 cards, including its commander.
Step by step
Choose and test a land count
- 01
Choose a baseline
Start around 37 lands and identify the land drops your plan needs.
- 02
Calculate
Use the land-drop calculator with explicit library, hand, and draw assumptions.
- 03
Check the curve
Inspect early colored costs, tapped lands, and the mana needed to cast your draw or ramp.
- 04
Test several games
Record missed drops, missing colors, and unused late lands.
- 05
Change one slot
Compare one added or removed land while keeping the rest of the deck stable.
Questions & Answers
FAQ
Is 37 lands always correct?
No. It is a starting heuristic. Use a 99-card probability model, examine your early costs, and record missed land drops before changing it.
Is 40 lands too many?
Not necessarily. Landfall, expensive commanders, and a plan that needs repeated land drops can justify 40. Look for evidence of flooding across several games rather than one awkward draw.
Can I run 30 lands?
Some specialized lists do, but the lower natural land-drop probability requires compensating draw, fast mana, or a different plan. Do not copy the count without copying the support.
Do mana rocks count as lands?
No. They can accelerate you after you cast them, but cannot be played as the land needed to cast them.
Keep reading
Related guides
Calculate colored sources with explicit assumptions
Use a 99-card library, desired casting turn, colored pips, and a chosen probability threshold to evaluate Commander mana sources.
Building a budget Commander mana base
Plan a budget Commander mana base with basics, color-source checks, tapped-land tradeoffs, and upgrades matched to your early spells.
Choosing fetch lands for Commander
Compare fetch-land targets, tapped entry, activation costs and landfall benefits before upgrading your Commander mana base.