Mana recommendation regression benchmark

Seven actual stock Commander lists are checked at $50 and $100 budget settings with 37 requested lands. The card-text reference is dated October 7, 2026. The curated land pool uses deliberately frozen tier prices for repeatability; displayed benchmark costs are test values, not live market quotes.

The checks preserve all imported spells and the commander, honor the requested land count and budget, prevent duplicate nonbasics, and disclose source shortages. They do not prove sequencing, opening-hand quality, or game results.

Reap the Tides · $50 test budget

Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $44.20

Original list: 44 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 93 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 26 / 32 nominal sources
  • G: 27 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 26/32, G: 27/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Reap the Tides · $100 test budget

Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 44 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 93 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 26 / 32 nominal sources
  • G: 27 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 26/32, G: 27/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Elven Empire · $50 test budget

Lathril, Blade of the Elves · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $44.20

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • B: 27 / 29 nominal sources
  • G: 26 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: B: 27/29, G: 26/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Unclaimed Territory, Secluded Courtyard. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Elven Empire · $100 test budget

Lathril, Blade of the Elves · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • B: 27 / 29 nominal sources
  • G: 26 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: B: 27/29, G: 26/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Unclaimed Territory, Secluded Courtyard. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Draconic Destruction · $50 test budget

Atarka, World Render · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $44.20

Original list: 40 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 97 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • R: 23 / 34 nominal sources
  • G: 24 / 27 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: R: 23/34, G: 24/27. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Unclaimed Territory, Secluded Courtyard, Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Draconic Destruction · $100 test budget

Atarka, World Render · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 40 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 97 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • R: 24 / 34 nominal sources
  • G: 24 / 27 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: R: 24/34, G: 24/27. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Unclaimed Territory, Secluded Courtyard. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Explorers of the Deep · $50 test budget

Hakbal of the Surging Soul · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $44.20

Original list: 36 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 101 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 22 / 32 nominal sources
  • G: 23 / 32 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 22/32, G: 23/32. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Explorers of the Deep · $100 test budget

Hakbal of the Surging Soul · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 36 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 101 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 22 / 32 nominal sources
  • G: 23 / 32 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 22/32, G: 23/32. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Undead Unleashed · $50 test budget

Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $44.20

Original list: 40 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 97 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 23 / 38 nominal sources
  • B: 24 / 32 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 23/38, B: 24/32. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Undead Unleashed · $100 test budget

Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 40 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 97 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • U: 23 / 38 nominal sources
  • B: 24 / 32 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: U: 23/38, B: 24/32. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Buckle Up · $50 test budget

Kotori, Pilot Prodigy · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $46.20

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • W: 23 / 27 nominal sources
  • U: 24 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: W: 23/27, U: 24/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Buckle Up · $100 test budget

Kotori, Pilot Prodigy · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $81.20

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • W: 23 / 27 nominal sources
  • U: 24 / 38 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: W: 23/27, U: 24/38. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Enduring Enchantments · $50 test budget

Anikthea, Hand of Erebos · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $46.70

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • W: 25 / 29 nominal sources
  • B: 22 / 23 nominal sources
  • G: 25 / 29 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: W: 25/29, B: 22/23, G: 25/29. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

Enduring Enchantments · $100 test budget

Anikthea, Hand of Erebos · 37 lands · deterministic test cost $84.70

Original list: 37 lands. Replacing those with 37 produces 100 cards including the commander; adjust spell slots before treating a changed-count list as complete.

  • W: 25 / 29 nominal sources
  • B: 23 / 23 nominal sources
  • G: 26 / 29 nominal sources

Color coverage below targets after backtracking. Deficits: W: 25/29, G: 26/29. Consider raising budget or removing forbidden lands.

Mana restrictions: Pillar of the Paruns. Color totals include conditional sources usable for eligible spells or board states, not every spell. Check each land’s rules text.

The source targets derive from printed costs and timing heuristics. Review intended X values, extra draw, mulligans, ramp, and conditional sources separately. Validate the imported list and live prices when you rebuild.

Worked examples · Model and assumptions · Stock-list source